The real estate market in the U.S. could enter a down turn in under five years, with one of the largest online real estate company Zillow predicting that it will happen in 2020. This seems like an odd statement coming from a company that has just started it’s real estate acquisition phase. It may be a little self serving to have the market correct itself so Zillow can come in and purchase at a lower than actual value.
In a report in which Zillow polled 100 real estate experts and economists across the country in multiple real estate markets about their predictions for the housing market, it reported that nearly half of all survey respondents said the next recession may begin as early as 2020, with the first quarter of the year cited the most as to when the slowdown could start. The main reason they gave for the housing recession: monetary policy.
Zillow Zestimates and Poll
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In markets such as Denver and the Denver Foothills where the real estate market and homeowners have seen double digit appreciation year over year for 5 years this should not have a huge impact on the current home values. This downturn should be nothing like 2008 and will most likely not have a significant impact on the big picture.
Notable Points About Recent Real Estate Markets
- The U.S. housing market has recovered from the 2008–09 financial crisis, with home prices exceeding the pre-collapse valuation in many areas.
- Despite a record bull market over the past decade, the housing market in the U.S. could enter a recession in 2020, according to Zillow.
- This prediction is based on their own outlook combined with results from a survey of homeowner sentiment.
Zillow is a popular website for aggregating real estate price information and gauging market sentiment for homebuyers and sellers. In this research report, several Zillow experts weighed in on the results.
Who Is Zillow?
“As we close in on the longest economic expansion this country has ever seen, meaningfully higher interest rates should eventually slow the frenetic pace of home value appreciation that we have seen over the past few years, a welcome respite for would-be buyers,”Zillow senior economist
“Housing affordability is a critical issue in nearly every market across the country, and while much remains unknown about the precise path of the U.S. economy in the years ahead, another housing market crisis is unlikely to be a central protagonist in the next nationwide downturn.”Zillow senior economist
If the survey respondents’ predictions prove true, the current economic expansion will be the longest ever recorded. While a housing collapse ushered in the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009, most survey respondents don’t think a downturn in the economy will be centered on the housing market this time around. They think the Federal Reserve’s actions when it comes to interest rates will be the biggest reason for the looming recession. After all, if rates go up, it will be more costly to take out a mortgage, shutting some buyers out of the purchasing process. They noted that, if the Fed raises rates too quickly, it could slow down the economy and thus lead to a recession.
Zillow pointed out that, less than a year ago, survey respondents were more concerned with geopolitical issues, citing a crisis on that front as the most likely cause of a future recession. Those worries are now below monetary policy concerns. Other concerns are focused on a trade war with China, a stock market correction, and unexpectedly high inflation. Those same respondents expect the housing market to continue to grow, with home values expected to rise 5.5% this year. At this time a year ago, the real estate experts thought home values would increase 3.7% this year.
Here in Colorado, specifically the Denver and Denver Foothills market we have seen a large appreciation for the last few years. Zillow is even starting their home acquisition program in the Denver real estate market. Areas like Golden and Evergreen, CO are seeing huge increases in value in every price point.
“Constrained home supply, persistent demand, very low unemployment, and steady economic growth have given a jolt to the near-term outlook for U.S. home prices,” said Pulsenomics founder Terry Loebs, which conducted the survey for Zillow. “These conditions are overshadowing concerns that mortgage rate increases expected this year might quash the appetite of prospective home buyers.”Zillow