Zillow economist Matthew Speakman said the strong August housing-starts numbers indicated high builder confidence was being buoyed by falling mortgage rates. “It’s not flashy, but this sign of resilience is welcome news for a housing market that is still struggling to grasp some momentum,” Mr. Speakman said.
Month: September 2019
Tammy has been fighting for Colorado’s students, parents and teachers for more than two decades. Now she’s running for State Senate to fight for all of us. Investing in our schools, attracting good-paying Colorado jobs, fixing our crumbling roads, and protecting our Colorado way of life, Tammy is the advocate our community needs.
WASHINGTON—President Trump set a goal, a good goal for everyone. He wanted to hit 3% growth. Unfortunately the US may fall a bit short of that goal by about .08%. Although the economy has been rather robust this may not be something he would want strolling into 2020 with the election looking like it might be close.
Growth Over the Next Couple Years
Private-sector economists surveyed in recent days expect U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to expand an inflation-adjusted 2.2% (missing the 3% goal) this year on average, measured from the fourth quarter a year earlier. Forecasters surveyed expect economic growth will slow to 1.7% in 2020 and will be 1.9% in 2021.
White House Projections
By contrast, the White House said in July it expected the economy would grow 3.2% this year. It predicted expansions of 3.1% in 2020, and 3% in each of the following four years.Downside Tilt Is the risk to your U.S. gross-domestic-product growth forecast for the next 12 months more to the upside or downside?
“There’s no visibility to 3% right now,” said Brian Bethune, an economist at Tufts University, citing trade uncertainty, economic weakness in Europe and the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
Year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 was 2.5% and 2.8% for 2017. That performance fell short of the 3% growth rate President Trump targeted with his policies of tax cuts, deregulation and a tougher trade stance.
It isn’t that uncommon for the White House in any administration to project a higher outlook than economists. This year the Trump administration’s 2020 budget projects much stronger growth than many independent forecasters, who see the economy slowing as the effects of fiscal stimulus measures wane. Gross domestic product grew at a 2% annual rate in the second quarter of this year and 3.1% in the first quarter.
The White House said Thursday morning that it stands by its economic growth projections. “Are these the same economists who preached that slow and stagnant growth was the new normal?” spokesman Judd Deere said in an email. This was to be expected.
He added that “despite headwinds from severe monetary tightening and a global recession, President Trump’s agenda has created the strongest economy we’ve ever seen,” with robust job creation, rising wages and high consumer confidence. All of those statements are true. There had been a huge addition of jobs across just about every sector in recent years.
National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said last week that employment growth and productivity gains during the past two years, which he attributed to the administration’s economic policies, have bolstered economic growth.
“The economy’s potential is now moving above 3% for the first time in probably 20 years plus,” he said Friday in an interview with CNBC. Recession Odds Rising The average probability of the economy being in a recession within the next 12 months.
Trump and The Feds
Mr. Trump has attacked Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the central bank’s monetary policy in recent months, calling for lower rates to spur the economy. He described the second-quarter growth rate as:
“not bad considering we have the very heavy weight of the Federal Reserve anchor wrapped around our neck.”Jerome Powell
On Wednesday, Mr. Trump called for rates below zero for the first time.
Nonetheless, the 3% growth target was based on short-term interest rates rising. In early 2018, the White House predicted that GDP growth in 2019 would be 3.2% and 3.1% in 2020, even as it expected three-month Treasury bill rates would average 2.3% in 2019 and 2.9% in 2020.
The three-month Treasury bill moves closely with the Fed’s benchmark federal-funds rate, which is currently in a range between 2% and 2.25%. The yield on the three-month bill stood at 1.95% on Thursday morning.
In the latest survey, only three economists out of 60 expected the quarterly growth rate to hit 3% or higher at any point this year or next.
Many economists see powerful forces restraining U.S. economic growth, such as an aging population and choppy advances in productivity.
Economists’ expectations in the latest Wall Street Journal survey are broadly in line with those of Fed officials, who expect the economy to grow 2.1% in 2019. They forecast expansion of 2% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021.
China Trade Dispute Causing Uncertainty
For economists surveyed, the most significant factor creating uncertainty for U.S. businesses and consumers is the trade dispute with China. When asked about the biggest downside risk they see for the economy, 61.5% of economists cited trade, tariffs or exports. They also estimated the likelihood of a recession in the near term was rising. The average probability of a recession in the next 12 months was 34.8% in the September survey, up from 17.7% a year ago.
The Journal’s survey of 60 business, financial and academic economists was conducted Sept. 6-10. Not every forecaster answered every question.Read more
This is great news for consumer and anyone concerned about inflation. Consumer prices slowed in August, rising by a slight 0.1%, reflecting a big drop in the cost of gasoline and other energy products. This is a measurement of all products some specific industries always vary.
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
The real estate market in the U.S. could enter a down turn in under five years, with one of the largest online real estate company Zillow predicting that it will happen in 2020. This seems like an odd statement coming from a company that has just started it’s real estate acquisition phase. It may be a little self serving to have the market correct itself so Zillow can come in and purchase at a lower than actual value.
Colorado real estate agents have seen a very hot market for about 4 years now. With homes appreciating in double digits every year. There have been a few different theories on the reason why. If you ask some folks they contribute the booming real estate market on legalization. The timing does sort of match up with the increase. The problem with this theory is many other states have made it legal and haven’t seen the huge increase and influx of people moving in. California is seeing a decrease in population after legalizing. People are flowing out of California at a faster rate than many other states. Since the industry doesn’t actually add that many jobs to the economy it seems like this is an unlikely factor in the increase of home values.
There is now a petition to impeach/recall Judge Rachel Rancilio, A story we have been following very closely is the awful miscarriage of justice that was displayed by Judge Rachel Rancilio from the 16th Circuit Court in Macomb County. This is a perfect example of the abuse of power so many judges use in our courts but especially out family courts.
Reform Our Family Courts Now was started for one reason and one reason only. Our founder was in a very high conflict divorce and he saw what the constant years of abuse from his ex was doing to his children. The fact a person could use the family court system as a revenge tool with no one having any concern for his children but him was devastating. He saw attorneys that had no regard for law. He saw judges that had no regard for the truth. No matter how much he begged, he broke down in court and pleaded with everyone from the attorneys, judges and PRE and guardians ad litem to just make the abuse stop. I wouldn’t for 5 long years. He was falsely accused of horrific acts he had to defend against. He was forced to meet with psychiatrists and PREs to prove he was as good as a parent as his ex wife. He won almost every time but the cost was so damaging. He lost just about everything. The attorney fees and court costs were hundreds of thousands of dollars. He was mentally, physically and financially broken. He was not just depressed he was being pushed over the edge. He found it hard to function on a day to day bases.
At this point he tried to find anyone that would understand. Anyone that would listen. He stumbled across some Facebook pages like #ReformOurFamilyCourtsNow. At that point he realized not only was he not alone, there where hundreds of thousands of people across the country that weren’t only going through it but had the exact same story as him. As he was reading these stories it sounded like he was reading his own. He Realized at that point he wasn’t alone.
He knew at this point he found something to give him strength. Not only a fight for him and his children but fight for every damn child, father, mother and grandparent that is being alienated by a vicious and and angry ex. This is not a group only for men. Although most groups of this type have the word “father” in the title Reform Our Family Courts Now realized there were a lot of women with the same story. Good loving parents that had no idea how bad the system can be abused by horrible monsters.
At this point he knew what he was put on this earth to do. He began fighting for every child of divorce. Every person that was being abused by the system. He began calling anyone that would listen. From state senators and congress members to senators on a national level. He began knocking on doors. He began giving his number out to anyone that was in pain. He spoke to hundreds of people then that number became thousands. He realized that no matter what city, county or state they lived in the stories were almost identical. At this point he was flat broke and in debt from fighting his own battle. All he had was a ton of people on social media that supported the movement and the knowledge of webdesign and SEO. The Reform Our Family Courts Now movement was born.
We believe in 50/50 shared parenting, decision making and finance. 50/50 means no one wins but the children. Read more
Not that this type of behavior could ever do any good for you in the courtroom, many people that have been in family court understand the frustration of the system. How most people in that courtroom have no interest in the truth.
SEPTEMBER 6–A Florida Man awaiting sentencing for attempted murder doused a prosecutor with urine Wednesday during an attack in a Fort Lauderdale courtroom.
According to a criminal complaint, Albert Narvaez, 28, was inside Judge Susan Alspector’s courtroom when he charged at Assistant State Attorney Andrew Newman and “threw urine fluid” at the lawyer. I think that many of the folks abused through the system in our family courts can understand where this man is coming from.
“The urine went inside [Newman’s] mouth and outer clothing,” an investigator reported. Newman was the lead prosecutor in the attempted murder case for which Narvaez was convicted and scheduled to be sentenced. I am pretty sure the fact it went in his mouth made the assault worth while for Narvaez.
Pictured at right, Narvaez, who worked at a Hallandale Beach sports bar, was convicted of firing several shots at his girlfriend as she ran from his vehicle following an argument in June 2017. Again this action is absolutely inexcusable but let’s keep in mind even a DA can be unethical. The DA is interested in only one thing, conviction rate and the truth is not something many of them are concerned about. The woman was not struck by the five or six bullets fired by Narvaez. Many people will agree that attorneys are the lowest forms of life on the planet. Even DA’s that are supposed to be helping the public often overlook the actual truth and facts.
Narvaez has been in custody at the Broward County jail in connection with the attempted murder case. It is unclear if he transported the bodily fluid into Alspector’s courtroom, or whether he urinated into some kind of a container while there. Not sure how a guy pissing in the water pitcher in the middle of his trial would go unnoticed by everyone in the courtroom.
After the urine attack, Narvaez stated, “He pissed on me. He told me to do it. Fuck him,” according to the court complaint. Not sure this guy has the best defense. Reform Our Family Courts Now does not condone what he did to his girlfriend but as people that have been pissed on by the courts we can certainly understand his frustration and really think him throwing piss on the DA isn’t something we can condone we certainly understand why he did it.
Narvaez was charged with misdemeanor battery. His sentencing in the attempted murder case was postponed. It seems like they needed some time to clean up the DA and didn’t want to sentence him on that day.Read more